A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
